Analysis of Economic Systems Using Complex Systems Simulation Models
Keywords:
interest rate, inflation, economic growth, unemployment, monetary policy, economic simulation, key economic variablesAbstract
This study analyzes economic systems through complex systems simulation models. The impact of interest rate changes on three key economic variables, including the inflation rate, economic growth, and the unemployment rate, has been examined. Interest rate fluctuations, as one of the primary instruments of monetary policy, have extensive effects on economic variables. After data collection, simulation models such as agent-based models or network models are designed and implemented to simulate the complex interactions among various economic variables. At this stage, the NetLogo software is used to implement the models with high accuracy and to effectively run multiple simulations. The simulation results indicate that in the short term, an increase in the interest rate leads to a reduction in inflation and economic growth, but in the long term, this increase may cause a decline in production and a rise in unemployment. Conversely, a decrease in the interest rate may, in the short term, stimulate economic growth and reduce unemployment, but in the long term, it could lead to high inflation and economic crises. Ultimately, this study recommends that economic policymakers adjust interest rates carefully and with consideration of economic conditions and long-term forecasts in order to prevent adverse effects.
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