Providing and Validating a Systemic Risk Model in the Tehran and Iraq Stock Exchanges
Keywords:
systemic risks, risk spillover, Iran and Iraq stock exchangesAbstract
The objective of the present study is to develop and validate a systemic risk model in the Tehran Stock Exchange and the Iraq Stock Exchange. This research was conducted using a descriptive–analytical approach and based on network theory to examine the intra-organizational and extra-organizational factors influencing risk transmission across listed industries in both countries. The statistical population consisted of 120 firms listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange during the years 2016–2023 and 41 Iraqi listed firms during the years 2015–2023. Data were collected through library research and secondary analysis, and the quantitative models were estimated using Python software and indicators such as correlation metrics, CoVaR, and the Granger Causality test (Granger Causality). The findings indicated that industry risk spillover in Iran is statistically significant, whereas in Iraq, due to a more concentrated market structure and dependency on the transportation sector, this effect is less observable. Furthermore, intra-organizational variables such as market value (MV) and market return (MR) exhibited significant effects on systemic risk in both exchanges, whereas liquidity ratios (LR) and capital ratios (CR) showed no significant impact. Extra-organizational factors such as the exchange rate and global oil prices played a decisive role in increasing systemic risk. Comparative analysis showed that the average CoVaR in the Iraq Stock Exchange is higher and more concentrated, while risk distribution in the Tehran Stock Exchange is more dispersed, reflecting higher industrial diversification. Based on the results, designing supervisory strategies grounded in network-based modeling and monitoring macroeconomic variables can contribute to reducing financial vulnerability and enhancing market stability in both countries. The findings also revealed that there is a significant difference between the effects of intra-organizational factors on systemic risk among selected firms listed in the Iraq and Tehran stock exchanges. Finally, the results indicated that a significant difference exists between the effects of extra-organizational factors on systemic risk among selected firms listed in the Iraq and Tehran stock exchanges.
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Copyright (c) 2025 Karrar Abood Hami Al Hafe (Author); Bahareh Banitalebi Dehkordi; Mostaf Abd Alhussein Ali Almansoori, Masood Fooladi (Author)
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